Try to make an mISDN trace of the calls. When a call is correctly established, your provider should mark the channel as busy and don't send any other SETUP messages for that line. With the trace you will see if this is the case (which would mean that your provider is not detecting the correct establishment of the call, or even show you that the call is not being correctly established at all)
You could add these options to the [general] section of your misdn.conf:
debug=2
tracefile=/var/log/asterisk/misdn.trace
And then simulate your problem.